Back

World Events

Will the U.S. Oust Cuba’s Current Regime? If Yes, When?

0 vol. pClash•12/31/2026 5:59 AM UTC•Loading...

This market resolves to the quarter in 2026 during which the United States directly causes the removal of Cuba’s current ruling regime, or “Never in 2026” if no such removal occurs. This market exists amid escalating U.S. pressure in the region, including the recent U.S. operation against Venezuela’s leadership, the collapse of Venezuelan oil supplies to Cuba, and reports that the U.S. is considering a naval blockade to halt oil shipments to Cuba. While none of these actions alone constitute regime change, they have raised speculation about whether U.S. pressure could escalate beyond sanctions and economic leverage. “Oust” means the existing Cuban government is removed from power or collapses as a direct result of overt U.S. military or state action. Resolution Criteria: A quarter resolves YES if, during that period: Cuba’s current ruling regime is no longer in power, and the change is directly attributable to U.S. action, such as: - U.S. military intervention - A U.S.-led operation that forces regime collapse - U.S. forces capturing, removing, or compelling the resignation of top Cuban leadership “Never in 2026” resolves if no such regime change occurs by Dec 31, 2026 (11:59 PM CST).